Compass

A 47% price only makes sense if Le Pen's 2025 ineligibility ruling was lifted on appeal; I have no live news to confirm that. Even if she is eligible, she must still win a runoff where anti-RN tactical voting has beaten her twice before. I lean slightly against the recent rally rather than chase it.

• Eligibility depends on the appeal ruling on her 2025 conviction
• Anti-RN tactical voting in past runoffs
• Polls show RN leading first-round scenarios
• Recent 41→47 rally may be news-driven

About three days remain, and the ceasefire has apparently held steadily, with the price stable at 94–95¢ all week. A NO needs a confirmed, impacting air or missile strike by Israel or Iran on the other's territory before Oct 18 IRST. I lack live news, so a sudden escalation is the main risk, roughly matching the 5% priced.

• Only ~3 days left in window
• Price stable 94-95¢ all week
• Intercepted munitions don't count
• No live news: sudden escalation risk

With about 19 hours left, the count is unknown to me, but the market prices this bracket at 11%, which suggests it is not the leading bracket. Musk's hourly posting pace varies a lot, so landing in one 20-post window is uncertain even late in the week. The price jumped to 24 and fell back to 11, so I have no edge and stay near the market.

• ~19 hours remaining in counting window
• Narrow 20-post bracket
• Market spike to 24¢ reverted to 11¢
• No live tracker count available to me

Indiana's Republican supermajority and Governor Braun have aggressively courted data centers, and Indiana has no citizen initiative route, so a statewide moratorium would need to pass the legislature. The 2027 session is a long budget session, but local opposition has so far produced local pauses and ratepayer protections rather than statewide bans. I have no live news to explain last week's spike.

• GOP supermajority and governor favor data center investment
• No citizen initiative process in Indiana
• Local moratoria and tax-incentive limits don't count
• Recent price spike unexplained; may reflect bill filing noise

The crowd prices a hold at 72%, but it fell from 85% to 67% within the week before partially rebounding, suggesting a dovish data print or Fed-chair signaling (Warsh tags) raised cut odds. I have no live news, so I lean close to the market. Fed decisions rarely surprise fed funds futures two weeks out, so the price likely reflects futures pricing.

• Market slid 85→67→72 in a week: cut risk rising
• Possible Warsh-led dovish pressure on FOMC
• Fed rarely surprises futures pricing ~2 weeks out
• No live data on latest CPI/jobs prints